IN CC Stats - NCAA Basketball

Preseason Rankings
Wright St.
Horizon
2018-19

Overall
Predictive Rating	+2.2	#138
Expected Predictive Rating	+0.0	#1

Pace	69.3	#175
Improvement	-	-

Offense
Total Offense	-1.5	#211

First Shot	-	-
After Offensive Rebound	-	-

Layup/Dunks	-	-
2 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
3 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
Freethrows	-	-

Improvement	-	-

Defense
Total Defense	+3.6	#65

First Shot	-	-
After Offensive Rebounds	-	-

Layups/Dunks	-	-
2 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
3 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
Freethrows	-	-

Improvement	-	-

	Now	Win Next	Lose Next
#1 Overall Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
#1 Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Top 2 Seed	0.0%	0.1%	0.0%
Top 4 Seed	0.0%	0.1%	0.0%
Top 6 Seed	0.3%	0.1%	0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid	32.9%	34.4%	20.5%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier	0.6%	0.7%	0.2%
Average Seed	13.8	13.8	14.6

.500 or above	84.4%	86.9%	63.6%
.500 or above in Conference	93.2%	93.9%	86.7%
Conference Champion	36.2%	37.8%	22.8%
Last Place in Conference	0.4%	0.4%	0.6%

First Four	2.7%	2.6%	3.5%
First Round	31.8%	33.2%	19.1%
Second Round	5.0%	5.4%	1.6%
Sweet Sixteen	1.3%	1.4%	0.2%
Elite Eight	0.3%	0.3%	0.0%
Final Four	0.1%	0.1%	0.0%
Championship Game	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
National Champion	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%

Next Game: Western Carolina (Home) - 89.6% chance of victory

Projected Seeding

Not in Tournament

Projected Record by Quad
Quad	Projected	Projected Cumulative
Quad 1a	0.1 - 0.8	0.1 - 0.8
Quad 1b	0.3 - 1.0	0.4 - 1.9
Quad 2	1.0 - 2.2	1.4 - 4.0
Quad 3	4.3 - 3.7	5.7 - 7.7
Quad 4	13.1 - 2.6	18.7 - 10.3

Date	Opponent		Result/Prediction			Record	Conf		Rating	Offense	Defense
Nov 07, 2018	307	Western Carolina	W	75-64	90%
Nov 10, 2018	151	@ Murray St.	W	69-68	43%
Nov 14, 2018	126	Toledo	L	72-73	58%
Nov 17, 2018	213	North Florida	W	82-77	78%
Nov 20, 2018	57	Penn St.	L	64-71	27%
Nov 21, 2018	56	SMU	L	62-69	28%
Dec 01, 2018	161	@ Indiana St.	W	71-69	45%
Dec 05, 2018	170	Miami (OH)	W	68-66	68%
Dec 08, 2018	159	@ Kent St.	W	71-69	47%
Dec 18, 2018	224	Morehead St.	W	73-67	79%
Dec 22, 2018	21	Mississippi St.	L	64-75	17%
Dec 28, 2018	181	Illinois-Chicago	W	73-70	71%
Dec 30, 2018	275	IUPUI	W	70-62	83%
Jan 03, 2019	336	@ Detroit Mercy	W	82-68	84%
Jan 05, 2019	245	@ Oakland	W	74-67	63%
Jan 11, 2019	128	@ Northern Kentucky	L	69-70	38%
Jan 17, 2019	329	@ Youngstown St.	W	80-67	81%
Jan 19, 2019	281	@ Cleveland St.	W	72-64	68%
Jan 24, 2019	261	Wisconsin-Milwaukee	W	69-61	82%
Jan 26, 2019	235	Green Bay	W	76-70	78%
Feb 01, 2019	181	@ Illinois-Chicago	W	73-70	50%
Feb 03, 2019	275	@ IUPUI	W	70-62	67%
Feb 07, 2019	245	Oakland	W	74-67	79%
Feb 09, 2019	336	Detroit Mercy	W	82-68	93%
Feb 15, 2019	128	Northern Kentucky	L	69-70	58%
Feb 21, 2019	281	Cleveland St.	W	72-64	82%
Feb 23, 2019	329	Youngstown St.	W	80-67	91%
Feb 28, 2019	235	@ Green Bay	W	76-70	61%
Mar 02, 2019	261	@ Wisconsin-Milwaukee	W	69-61	66%
Projected Record						18.7 - 10.3	12.9 - 5.1

Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.

Projected Horizon Finish

	0-18	1-17	2-16	3-15	4-14	5-13	6-12	7-11	8-10	9-9	10-8	11-7	12-6	13-5	14-4	15-3	16-2	17-1	18-0		Total
1st											0.0	0.0	0.4	2.2	6.0	9.5	9.6	6.0	2.5		36.2	1st
2nd											0.1	0.8	4.2	7.6	7.2	3.5	0.7				24.1	2nd
3rd									0.0	0.1	1.1	4.1	5.7	3.5	1.0	0.0					15.5	3rd
4th									0.0	1.0	3.5	3.6	1.5	0.4							10.0	4th
5th							0.0	0.0	0.5	2.5	2.3	0.5	0.1								6.0	5th
6th							0.0	0.5	1.8	1.3	0.5	0.0									4.1	6th
7th						0.0	0.4	0.9	0.8	0.2	0.0										2.4	7th
8th					0.0	0.2	0.4	0.4	0.0	0.0											1.1	8th
9th			0.0	0.0	0.1	0.1	0.1	0.0													0.4	9th
10th		0.0	0.0	0.0	0.1	0.0															0.1	10th

Total		0.0	0.0	0.1	0.2	0.4	1.0	1.9	3.2	5.1	7.5	9.0	11.8	13.7	14.2	13.1	10.2	6.0	2.5			Total

Horizon Regular Season Championship

Record	Champion	Total		Outright	2-Way	3-Way	4-Way	5-Way	6-Way	7-Way	8-Way
18-0	100.0%	2.5		2.5
17-1	100.0%	6.0		5.7	0.2
16-2	93.6%	9.6		8.0	1.6	0.0
15-3	72.7%	9.5		6.6	2.8	0.2
14-4	42.4%	6.0		3.0	2.3	0.7	0.0
13-5	16.4%	2.2		0.5	1.2	0.4	0.2
12-6	3.0%	0.4		0.0	0.1	0.2	0.1	0.0
11-7	0.5%	0.0			0.0	0.0	0.0
10-8	0.0%	0.0					0.0
9-9	0.0%

Total	36.2%	36.2		26.3	8.2	1.4	0.3	0.0

NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf Record	Record Chance		Tourney Bid	Auto	At-Large	Avg Seed		1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16	No Bid		At-Large if not Auto
18-0	2.5%		82.1%	76.2%	6.0%	10.6			0.0	0.0	0.0	0.1	0.1	0.1	0.1	0.1	0.1	0.4	0.4	0.4	0.2	0.0		0.4		25.0%
17-1	6.0%		74.7%	71.7%	2.9%	12.4				0.0		0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.1	0.2	0.6	1.3	1.1	0.8	0.2	0.0	1.5		10.4%
16-2	10.2%		61.8%	61.2%	0.6%	13.2									0.0	0.0	0.0	0.3	1.3	2.0	1.7	0.8	0.1	3.9		1.6%
15-3	13.1%		48.5%	48.3%	0.2%	13.9											0.0	0.1	0.6	1.4	2.3	1.6	0.4	6.8		0.4%
14-4	14.2%		38.0%	37.9%	0.1%	14.5												0.0	0.2	0.8	1.6	1.9	0.9	8.8		0.2%
13-5	13.7%		25.9%	25.9%		15.0													0.0	0.2	0.7	1.4	1.2	10.2
12-6	11.8%		19.8%	19.8%		15.2													0.0	0.1	0.3	1.0	1.0	9.5
11-7	9.0%		14.5%	14.5%		15.5													0.0	0.0	0.1	0.4	0.8	7.7
10-8	7.5%		9.6%	9.6%		15.8															0.0	0.1	0.6	6.7
9-9	5.1%		6.0%	6.0%		15.9															0.0	0.0	0.3	4.8
8-10	3.2%		2.4%	2.4%		16.0																0.0	0.1	3.1
7-11	1.9%		1.6%	1.6%		16.0																	0.0	1.9
6-12	1.0%		1.4%	1.4%		16.0																	0.0	1.0
5-13	0.4%		0.1%	0.1%		16.0																	0.0	0.4
4-14	0.2%																							0.2
3-15	0.1%																							0.1
2-16	0.0%																							0.0
1-17	0.0%																							0.0
0-18

Total	100%		32.9%	32.5%	0.4%	13.8			0.0	0.0	0.0	0.1	0.1	0.1	0.1	0.2	0.3	1.4	3.7	6.1	7.7	7.6	5.4	67.1		0.6%

Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

	Chance	Tourney Bid	Avg Seed	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16
Win Out	0.1%	100.0%	3.9		21.8	23.4	2.4	49.2	1.6	1.6